State of Autonomous Vehicles - June 2025 - Scenarios for Widespread UK Adoption

After years of development, autonomous vehicles (AVs) are now operating commercially on public roads across multiple cities. Leading robotaxi firms Waymo (US) and Apollo Go (China) deliver hundreds of thousands of weekly rides, with Waymo achieving 250,000 rides per week and Apollo Go 85,000 as of late 2024. Both companies report double-digit year-on-year growth and have outlined domestic expansion plans whilst signaling international ambitions.

It has long been difficult to separate promise from reality, but with millions having now taken driverless rides in the US and China, AVs are no longer something of the future. US leader Waymo is reported  to have taken 22% of the rideshare market in SF, though internally generated usage numbers are always subject to challenge. Waymo now operates commercially in 4 cities, proving concrete growth, even to sceptics. In China, cheap manufacturing is a key advantage. Apollo Go’s flagship robotaxi can apparently be manufactured over 75% more cheaply than Waymo’s JaguarLandrover-produced model ($28,350 vs $100,000 conversion costs on top of the base JLR car). Chinese statistics are harder to interrogate than those from the US, where an active online following carries out some sort of peer review. Nevertheless, Apollo Go reports 85,000 rides per week with a 36% Year on Year (YoY) growth and operations in 12 Chinese cities, as well as launching international expansion plans in Dubai, Switzerland and Turkey.

The AV ecosystem extends beyond robotaxis, with limited commercial freight operations beginning in Texas and South China. In Europe, Swedish firm Einride leads autonomous freight development at logistics centres, whilst Chinese companies like WeRide and Pony.ai pursue aggressive international expansion with tests conducted globally. This diversification reflects a maturing industry that is moving from proof-of-concept to revenue generating services.

This report examines current global trends and explores plausible scenarios for UK autonomous vehicle adoption. We find that:

→ Economics increasingly favour autonomous deployment. Hardware costs are declining rapidly, with LiDAR sensors, hitherto a primary cost component, forecast to drop from $5,000 to under $200 at scale. At $30,000 per car for Chinese models, we are close to the inflation adjusted price point at which the Model T launched.

→ Waymo is successfully expanding from their Phoenix and California locations. Uber’s CEO claims that Waymo’s newly deployed 100 vehicle fleet in Austin achieve utilisation rates exceeding the top 1% of human Uber drivers. Whilst AV market share data is controversial among experts, less controversial is their safety record. Insurance markets give Waymo premiums that run 90% lower than human-operated vehicles providing third-party safety credibility. These operational advantages create compelling unit economics as fleets scale.

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Two areas warrant particular attention for near-term deployment, despite progress in multiple segments: (1) Robotaxis for urban transport and (2) autonomous logistics for freight movement. These applications face the clearest path to widespread commercial viability given current technology capabilities and economic incentives. The UK’s first Level 4 autonomous taxis may arrive as early as spring 2026. The Department for Transport has fast-tracked approval for commercial trials in London, allowing British startup Wayve to operate fully driverless services; rides will be available via the Uber app.

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UK Adoption Scenarios

The following scenarios explore potential pathways for autonomous vehicle adoption in the UK, each emphasising different technological, economic, and regulatory developments. These scenarios are complementary rather than mutually exclusive - elements from multiple scenarios may unfold simultaneously, with their relative prominence determined by unpredictable factors including technological breakthroughs, market dynamics, regulatory decisions, and geopolitical developments.

Rather than providing specific adoption timelines, these scenarios function as analytical tools for organisational leaders in other industries to understand how AVs might reshape their particular markets. By exploring these potential futures, stakeholders can better prepare for a transformation that may unfold through multiple pathways simultaneously, each carrying distinct implications for British society, economy, and daily life.

The five scenarios each illustrate a different primary route to widespread adoption. In reality, some or all of these are likely to unfold, without necessarily excluding other options.

🔗 Read the full report: State of Autonomous Vehicles: Scenarios for Widespread UK Adoption

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